By Thomas B. Edsall
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, May 27, 2005; A02

John J. Sweeney, the embattled chief of the AFL-CIO, yesterday was virtually assured of election to a fifth term, after a key labor leader threw his support to Sweeney and undermined a long-festering challenge by labor dissidents.

While Sweeney, 71, now appears certain to win, the nation's largest union, the Service Employees International Union, is more likely to follow through on threats to bolt from the AFL-CIO. "The challenge here is to make sure we have a labor movement that can change people's lives," said SEIU President Andrew L. Stern, noting that all of his union's locals are voting on a proposal that would authorize the union to sever its ties to the labor federation.

Leaders of the four other anti-Sweeney unions -- Unite Here, the Laborers, the Teamsters, and the Food and Commercial Workers -- are actively considering joining SEIU to form a separate organization as hostilities have steadily intensified over the past year and a half.

A fractured labor movement would be a devastating blow to the Democratic Party, which has counted on the AFL-CIO to mobilize and turn out voters in battleground states and to funnel cash to Democratic candidates.

The key endorsement of Sweeney came from Ron Gettelfinger, president of the United Auto Workers, who had previously signaled that he might join the anti-Sweeney faction when he backed their policy proposals at a Las Vegas meeting earlier this year. Gettelfinger said that Sweeney "has focused squarely on issues and on doing what's in the best interests of workers and their families, refusing to be drawn into divisive personal squabbles."

Only once in the 50-year history of the AFL-CIO has the incumbent leadership been defeated. That occurred in 1995, when Sweeney unseated Thomas R. Donahue, charging that under Donahue and his predecessor, Lane Kirkland, the federation had steadily declined, both in terms of union membership as a percent of the workforce and as a force in politics. Sweeney's critics are making the same charges against Sweeney now -- noting that labor-backed presidential candidates have lost twice, the GOP's control of Congress has grown stronger and the percent of unionized workers has declined to 12.5 percent overall and to 7.9 percent in the private sector.

The dissident unions, calling themselves the "Change to Win" coalition, had been counting on the UAW to give them new momentum, and lift the collective membership of their unions to well over 5 million. There are about 13 million members in the 58 unions that make up the AFL-CIO, so it takes unions with a total of 6.5 million members or more to win a leadership fight. At the moment, the dissident unions have just under 5 million members.

Stern said beating Sweeney had been a long-shot proposition from the beginning. "It's always been hard to imagine defeating an incumbent leader," Stern said. "John Sweeney has probably always had the votes."

Unite Here President John Wilhelm, who was widely viewed as the most likely person to run against Sweeney, contends that winning majority support for restructuring will precede any leadership change. He said he has spent his "entire life in the House of Labor," but he did not rule out joining Stern and leaving the AFL-CIO.

Arlene Holt Baker, who next week will become the manager of Sweeney's reelection campaign, said he now has commitments from union leaders representing more than a majority of the AFL-CIO members. She said Sweeney will make an announcement listing specific endorsements in the coming weeks.

The Wilhelm-Stern insurgent faction had been exploring maneuvers to try to expand their numbers. One idea under consideration has been to persuade the Carpenters Union to rejoin the federation, and then get the National Education Association to affiliate with the AFL-CIO.

AFL-CIO officials said yesterday that even if such tactics succeed, they would not change the vote because the deadline to qualify to cast ballots at the July convention was in March, making it too late for the carpenters and teachers to vote, even if they join.

Stern and his allies have argued that Sweeney is too "consensus-oriented" to force the kinds of changes necessary to restore vitality to the labor movement. Stern had initially proposed some controversial changes, including empowering the AFL-CIO to force union mergers in order to be better equipped to organize global industries, or to organize entire sectors of the economy.

More recently, the scope of the differences between the Stern coalition and the Sweeney forces has diminished, focusing on a Teamster proposal to rebate to unions 50 percent of the dues they pay the AFL-CIO to be used for organizing.